Sunday, February 21, 2010

Weekly Review: February 22, 2010

Markets consolidate around 16k
Amidst sessions marked by high volatility, the Indian markets consolidated their position during the current week of trade, with both the benchmark indices, the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty, ending higher by 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. The BSE Mid- and Small-Cap indices suffered a bigger blow, with each of these indices ending lower by 1.2%. On the sectoral front, all the major sectoral indices witnessed a mixed trend, with the BSE Healthcare index gaining the maximum of 1.9%, while the BSE Realty index led the pack of losers and ended down by 5.8% for the week.
BSE Realty Sector - on a weak foundation
The Realty Sector lost 5.8% on a weekly basis and underperformed the Sensex, which was up marginally by 0.2%. Apprehensions of a rate hike by the RBI and an overall risk aversion ahead of the Union Budget for FY2011 forced investors to take a cautious stand on the sector. The top losers were Unitech (6.1%), Ansal Properties (5.9%), DLF (5.2%), Parsvnath (4.0%) and Sobha Developers (3.4%), among others on the index.
Inside This Weekly
Union Budget Preview review 2010-11:
Partial Stimulus rollback and fiscal prudence setting in are already reflecting in the current behaviour of the market participants. Thus, any significant deviation from the expected can lead to heightened volatility in markets. However, considering the limited options at hand for the FM in this Budget, it seems unlikely that he can deviate from the path visible. Thus, the FM's moves are expected to be calculative so as to ensure that a move towards fiscal prudence is initiated without jeopardizing the country's growth prospects.
Man Infraconstruction - IPO Note:
Man Infraconstruction (MInfra) is a mid-sized construction company specialising in Residential buildings (83% of Order Book) in Mumbai and Pune. On the valuation front, the IPO is available at a P/E of 11-12x FY2012E Earnings on the lower and upper price bands respectively, which is at a premium to listed players. Moreover, due to the concentrated nature of business and subdued Earnings growth, we believe the stock should trade at a discount to its peers. Hence, we recommend an Avoid to the Issue.
Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) - FPO Note:
REC is a leading public financial institution exclusively focused on extending finance to the Indian Power Sector. Around 91% of REC's loan book comprises of loans to public sector entities. Around 91% of the loans are either secured by or enjoy government guarantee. At the floor price of Rs203, the stock is available at 1.5x FY2011E. Adjusted Book Value of Rs132 and 1.3x FY2012E Adjusted Book Value of Rs151. We believe that REC can command up to 1.75x on its FY2012E Adjusted Book Value, implying a reasonable upside. Hence, we recommend a Subscribe view on the issue.
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Monday, February 8, 2010

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Monday, February 1, 2010

Weekly Review: January 30, 2010

Markets continue profit-taking

Markets continued to witness profit booking during the week, with both the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty, ending lower by 3.0% and 3.1%, respectively. The BSE Mid-Cap and Small- Cap indices also fell by 4.0% and 4.9%, respectively. Notably, the RBI in its Monetary Policy Review raised CRR by 75 bps to suck out excess liquidity from the banking system. However, other key rates were left unchanged. On the sectoral front, all the major sectoral indices ended in the red, with the BSE Metal index losing the maximum of 7.8%, followed by the BSE Realty and the BSE Auto indices.

3QFY2010 Monetary Policy Review:

RBI hiked CRR by 75 bps to 5.75% in its 3QFY2010 Monetary Policy, to drain out excess liquidity in the system. RBI also raised GDP projection for the year to 7.5%. We believe low interest rates and reducing leverage in borrowers' balance sheets (due to equity raising and rising earnings), will revive credit demand 4QFY2010E onwards.

Tyre-Sector Update:

With the sector set for a structural shift (higher investment needs in Radialisation) and apparent pricing flexibility, improvement in the RoCE and RoE of Tyre manufacturers is expected, going forward. With 12-month view, JK Tyre offers better risk-reward, and we rate it a Buy. However, we prefer Apollo Tyres in the long term for its comprehensive business strategy. We also recommend a Buy on CEAT, owing to attractive valuations.

Greenply Industries (GIL):

GIL is well placed to service future wood panel demand, as it has largest production capacity and distribution network in India. Owing to strong RoE profile and substantial expansion in lucrative organised markets of MDF and laminates, we assign a target multiple of 8x FY2012E EPS of Rs 36.4. We recommend a Buy, with a 15-month target price of Rs 291, implying an upside of around 57%.

DB Realty (DBRL) - IPO Note:

DBRL has launched an IPO (~30.9mn shares) in the Price Band of Rs 468-486/share to raise approx Rs 1,500 cr. DBRL has firmed up development plans for 100 mn sq ft with a total saleable area of 60.9 mn sq ft. We have assumed average realisation of Rs 6,000/sq ft, which gives us a Fair NAV of Rs 412/share. Hence, we believe that the IPO is expensive and recommend an Avoid.